Capital Raise Readiness Checklist: 90 Days Before You Raise
A 90/60/30-day checklist so your pipeline, pages and CRM are ready before a deal goes under contract.
Read →Short answer
To forecast a raise, multiply each prospect's expected check size by the probability of their current pipeline stage, then add it up. Compare that weighted total to your raise target. If weighted pipeline is below about 1.5 to 2 times the remaining amount, you have a gap that new prospect acquisition or existing-LP outreach must close before the deal goes live.
Key takeaways
- Weighted pipeline = sum of (expected check × stage probability).
- Set stage probabilities from your own history; start with conservative defaults.
- Aim for weighted pipeline coverage of 1.5x to 2x the remaining raise.
- Forecast weekly during a raise and monthly between raises.
How does weighted pipeline forecasting work?
Every prospect in your CRM has an expected check size and a stage. Each stage has a probability that the prospect eventually invests. Multiply and sum.
| Stage | Prospects | Avg expected check | Stage probability | Weighted capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engaged | 120 | $100,000 | 3% | $360,000 |
| Qualified | 45 | $110,000 | 10% | $495,000 |
| Call held | 28 | $120,000 | 25% | $840,000 |
| Soft commit | 18 | $130,000 | 60% | $1,404,000 |
| Existing LPs (warm) | 40 | $90,000 | 35% | $1,260,000 |
| Total | $4,359,000 |
Illustrative example. Replace probabilities with your own conversion history.
Weighted pipeline by stageIllustrative model
Example sponsor raising $6M
How much pipeline do you need?
Weighted pipeline is an estimate, and estimates are optimistic. Most teams target coverage of 1.5x to 2x the amount still to raise.
Pipeline build vs coverage targetIllustrative model
Example: $6M raise, 1.5x coverage target = $9M weighted pipeline
In this example, pipeline grows steadily but never reaches coverage. That is a signal to start acquisition earlier, widen existing-LP outreach, or adjust the raise plan. Seeing it 12 weeks out is the whole point.
Where do stage probabilities come from?
- Your history. Count, for your last two or three raises, how many prospects at each stage invested.
- Conservative defaults. Without history, start low (as in the table) and adjust after one raise.
- Recency. Decay probabilities for prospects with no activity in 60 or more days.
- Check size realism. Use what people have said, not what you hope.
Notes for hospitality sponsors
- Hospitality LPs weigh operating risk heavily. Expect longer diligence and lower early-stage probabilities.
- Forecast separately for repeat LPs familiar with hotels and new LPs coming from multifamily.
- Seasonality in performance data can affect investor sentiment; time investor education accordingly.
Run your numbers
Use our free LP Pipeline Calculator to work backward from a raise target to the leads and calls you need, and track forecasts each week with the Weekly Pipeline Scorecard.
Model your raise
Open the calculator →Work back from your target to leads, calls and budget.
Frequently asked questions
It is the sum of each prospect's expected investment multiplied by the probability that prospects at their stage end up investing. It turns a list of names into a realistic capital estimate.
A common target is 1.5x to 2x the remaining raise in weighted pipeline, because forecasts tend to be optimistic and some soft commitments fall away.
Weekly while a raise is active, and monthly between raises. Review it with leadership using a short scorecard.
Start with conservative stage probabilities, track outcomes on your next raise, and recalibrate. Even one raise of data improves accuracy a lot.
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Sources
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice, or an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Consult qualified securities counsel about your specific offering.
